Phil Weiser, Redistricting, Colorado, and How It Fits into the Whole Political Enchilada

Tit-for-tat on that national stage...

Some context: https://www.9news.com/article/news/politics/attorney-general-phil-weiser-gerrymandering-colorado/73-a09c59f4-8e83-44df-9495-7611dc7fd9af

I put together a response for a reporter this morning re: Weiser’s redistricting proposal, so I might as well share it here. I’ve been following national and Colorado redistricting dynamics closely.

Weiser’s comments yesterday mark a notable escalation, as he’s the highest-profile Democrat in the state to endorse this kind of “defensive” gerrymander in response to Republican-led efforts elsewhere.

So, is it likely that Colorado would redraw its maps before the 2026 midterms?

No, it’s highly unlikely—and in fact, unless I am missing something, impossible under AG Weiser’s current proposal. His call is for a one-time constitutional amendment to be placed on the November 2026 ballot, which, if approved by voters, would only enable the Democrat-controlled legislature to redraw congressional maps for the 2028 elections (not 2026). This is explicitly a post-2026 play, designed as a “break glass in case of emergency” response to mid-decade redistricting by Republican states like Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and proposed efforts in Texas, which are targeting gains for the 2026 midterms.

Colorado’s maps were last redrawn after the 2020 census via its independent, nonpartisan commission (Amendment 74, voter-approved in 2018), and there’s no legal mechanism for mid-decade changes before 2030 without amending the state constitution. A separate citizen initiative filed in August 2025 (which is what that tweet above was about) proposed giving the governor emergency powers to suspend the commission, but it hasn’t advanced and wouldn’t affect 2026 either. In short, Colorado voters will use the current 4-4 split map for next year’s midterms, barring some unforeseen court challenge.

What hurdles, legal or political, will Democrats need to clear to redraw the maps in Colorado?

Democrats face steep legal hurdles rooted in Colorado’s constitution and voter-approved reforms: The state mandates decennial redistricting only, handled by an independent commission to minimize partisanship. Weiser’s proposal requires amending the constitution to create a narrow exception allowing legislative control for 2028 only (reverting to the commission post-2030). Getting that amendment on the 2026 ballot means either:

Legislative referral: A two-thirds supermajority vote in both chambers of the General Assembly (Dems hold large majorities—23/35 in the Senate, 43/65 in the House—but fall just shy of the two-thirds threshold, so would need a few bipartisan votes, and may hesitate to hand the GOP an attack line).

Citizen initiative: Collecting ~120,000 valid signatures by mid-2026, followed by Title Board approval and a costly campaign.

Even if it qualifies, passage demands 55% voter approval—a high bar in a state where ballot measures often fail on procedural or “process purity” concerns. Legally, it could invite lawsuits alleging it violates the commission’s mandate or federal Voting Rights Act standards (e.g., if the new map cracks minority communities). The U.S. Supreme Court’s 2019 Rucho decision bars federal courts from policing partisan gerrymanders, but state courts (including Colorado’s) could scrutinize for fairness.

Politically, it’s a minefield: Republicans are already blasting it as a “power grab” and “demolition of democracy” (see recent X posts from @cologop and conservative influencers, e.g.), framing Weiser’s gubernatorial bid as hypocritical since he championed the independent commission in 2018. Moderate Dems and independents could balk at “tit-for-tat” gerrymandering, especially if it energizes GOP turnout in 2026. Gov. Jared Polis has been mum so far, but his majorities give him leverage to slow-roll if he sees electoral risk. Nationally, it could backfire if red states cry foul to the Supreme Court. Overall, I’d peg odds at 40-50% for ballot placement and under 40% for passage—slightly better than the August initiative making any headway, but still an uphill fight.

How many new seats could Democrats gain in this process?

Potentially 2-4, flipping the current 4-4 partisan split to a 6-2 or even 8-0 Democratic advantage—though Weiser frames it as a “fair” map reflecting Colorado’s underlying partisan lean (D+4 to D+6 by recent metrics like Cook PVI). The state’s population is concentrated in blue-leaning urban/suburban areas (Denver metro, Boulder, Fort Collins), while rural eastern Colorado is deep red. Simulations that I’ve seen show it’s feasible to draw compact districts that pack GOP voters into 2-4 safe Republican seats, leaving the rest blue. For context, the current map (drawn by the independent commission) was a compromise that preserved the even split despite Dems’ statewide dominance (they hold the governorship, both Senate seats, and large majorities in the legislature). A legislature-drawn map could “crack” swing districts like CO-8 (currently an R freshman’s toss-up, rated EVEN) or CO-3 (rural and R+7), netting Dems a net +2 easily, or more aggressively +4 if they maximize urban clustering. But overreach risks backlash and/or court invalidation for non-compactness.

Conclusion

This is less about Colorado than a microcosm of the national “redistricting arms race” Trump and the Republicans have ignited to preserve their trifecta (presidency, House, Senate) heading into the 2026 midterms. Red states are mid-decade redrawing to claw back House seats lost in 2024 (e.g., NC’s proposed map flips a blue seat red; IN and others are following suit, potentially netting GOP +5-7 overall). Dems in CA and VA are countering with their own redraws, but Colorado’s independent commission—once hailed as a model—now makes it harder for Ds to respond here. Weiser’s pitch is also savvy positioning for his 2026 gov run (painting him as a Trump-fighter), but overall, the move does risk further eroding trust in institutions if it devolves into endless retaliation. Ironically, Colorado’s educated, high-turnout electorate might punish perceived gamesmanship: Polls show strong support for nonpartisan reforms, and this could alienate swing voters.

Finally, if passed, it sets a precedent—imagine 2031, when roles reverse. Would be quite a thing!

Probably the most interesting right now: folks should watch the 2026 ballot signature drive for any measure; that’s the coming battleground.